CDC prepares for pandemic
Eryn Lowe
Issue date: 11/16/05 Section: News
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the avian flu could mutate into a human-to-human pandemic.
Director of the World Health Organization Lee John-Wook says the world is due for another pandemic and the avian flu could be the virus to do it.
"We think that the pandemic flu virus in humans is most likely to be a mutation of the avian flu virus H5N1," Jong-Wook said in October at an address to other health ministers in Ottawa, Canada.
Currently there are no confirmations of the virus traveling from one human to another. But in a 2004 briefing, CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding said human-to-human infections could randomly occur and then become harder to control.
"Occasionally a person-to-person transmission may occur, and these viruses are prone to evolve over time. So there's always the possibility that transmission could become more efficient," Gerberding said.
And though not confirmed, Dr. Dan Rutz of the CDC said that there has been a case in Thailand where human-to-human infection was evident. A Thailand mother was infected by her child who was exposed to chickens. Rutz said that although the mother and child's close contact stimulated the infection, there is still need for further investigation.
"There is never the less alarm because it is capable of doing it," Rutz said.
But so far there have only been cases of chicken-to-human infections, none of which have been in North America. Most cases have been in Asia where interaction between humans and chickens is more common. According to a CDC report, the mortality rate in Asia has now reached 51 percent, a figure that alarms health officials.
"Many of us are particularly worried about H5N1 avian influenza virus, and we're right to worry," Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said to the National Press Club in October. "It has infected at least 89 human beings and killed more than half."
But the virus has not only been confined to Asia. It has now moved into Europe and Africa. And the virus's mobile ability alarms CDC officials specifically in regard to trade and bird migration to Alaska. Rutz said that even if this H5N1 epidemic reaches the CDC's mid-level expectation in the United States, there could be between 89,000 and 207,000 deaths nationally.
Director of the World Health Organization Lee John-Wook says the world is due for another pandemic and the avian flu could be the virus to do it.
"We think that the pandemic flu virus in humans is most likely to be a mutation of the avian flu virus H5N1," Jong-Wook said in October at an address to other health ministers in Ottawa, Canada.
Currently there are no confirmations of the virus traveling from one human to another. But in a 2004 briefing, CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding said human-to-human infections could randomly occur and then become harder to control.
"Occasionally a person-to-person transmission may occur, and these viruses are prone to evolve over time. So there's always the possibility that transmission could become more efficient," Gerberding said.
And though not confirmed, Dr. Dan Rutz of the CDC said that there has been a case in Thailand where human-to-human infection was evident. A Thailand mother was infected by her child who was exposed to chickens. Rutz said that although the mother and child's close contact stimulated the infection, there is still need for further investigation.
"There is never the less alarm because it is capable of doing it," Rutz said.
But so far there have only been cases of chicken-to-human infections, none of which have been in North America. Most cases have been in Asia where interaction between humans and chickens is more common. According to a CDC report, the mortality rate in Asia has now reached 51 percent, a figure that alarms health officials.
"Many of us are particularly worried about H5N1 avian influenza virus, and we're right to worry," Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said to the National Press Club in October. "It has infected at least 89 human beings and killed more than half."
But the virus has not only been confined to Asia. It has now moved into Europe and Africa. And the virus's mobile ability alarms CDC officials specifically in regard to trade and bird migration to Alaska. Rutz said that even if this H5N1 epidemic reaches the CDC's mid-level expectation in the United States, there could be between 89,000 and 207,000 deaths nationally.